Bitcoin vs Gold: JPMorgan Data Shows BTC Resisting 21% Precious Metals Crash

JPMorgan analysts say gold's market liquidity has deteriorated below bitcoin's for the first time, as precious metals continue to sell off from January highs. Gold is down 21% and silver 43% from their peaks, while bitcoin has held its range and continued to attract net inflows.

Prices correct at time of publication, March 28, 2026.

Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,025 in October 2025. It has since pulled back considerably and is trading around $68,800 today, down roughly 4% intraday. Gold peaked at $5,602 per ounce in January and is now around $4,411, down 21% in under two months. Silver hit a nominal all-time high of $121.67 on January 29th and has dropped to around $68.71 today, a fall of more than 43%. In a note published Wednesday, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou attributed the sell-off in precious metals to ETF outflows, institutional position unwinds, deteriorating liquidity, and rising US Treasury yields. The institutions that built this rally are the ones taking it apart.

Bitcoin's picture looks different. After dropping to the low $60,000s when the Iran conflict escalated, the cryptocurrency has recovered back to around $68,800 and held that level even as geopolitical tensions persist and oil trades above $100 a barrel. JPMorgan flagged a notable shift: gold's market breadth has now deteriorated below bitcoin's, an unusual reversal of the typical liquidity relationship between the two assets.

JPMorgan: Institutional Investors Built This Precious Metals Rally. Now They Are Unwinding It.

The flow and positioning data in JPMorgan's note tells a consistent story. CME futures open interest, which the bank uses as a proxy for institutional activity, shows a sharp build-up in gold and silver exposure through late 2025 and into January, followed by a steep unwind that is still ongoing. Trend-following funds, which amplify moves in both directions, have swung from heavily long on gold and silver to below neutral. That kind of shift does not simply track price declines. It accelerates them.

Gold ETFs recorded nearly $11 billion in outflows in the first three weeks of March alone. Silver ETF inflows accumulated since last summer have been almost entirely reversed. Bitcoin funds saw net inflows over the same period. The directional split is notable, though it is worth being clear that inflows into bitcoin do not automatically signal a rotation out of metals. What the data shows is that the selling pressure on one side has not been matched by equivalent selling on the other.

JPMorgan: Bitcoin Momentum Is Recovering. Gold And Silver Are Still Heading The Other Way.

When the Iran conflict began, bitcoin dropped sharply alongside broader risk assets, briefly touching the low $60,000 range before stabilising. Since then it has recovered back toward $68,800, supported by longer-term holders stepping in once the initial liquidation pressure cleared. Gold has seen no equivalent recovery dynamic. Institutional selling has continued and liquidity conditions have kept thinning.

JPMorgan's momentum indicators show the divergence in concrete terms. Bitcoin's momentum is recovering from oversold conditions back toward neutral. Gold and silver have moved in the opposite direction, from overbought in January to below neutral now. The bank noted that gold's market breadth has thinned to a point where it now sits below bitcoin's, and that silver's market depth has weakened further still, with thin conditions exaggerating price moves in both directions.

For context, gold is still significantly higher than it was a year ago, and silver's gains over the same period remain substantial. The question the JPMorgan note raises is whether the current unwind reflects a temporary shakeout of speculative positioning or a more sustained shift in how institutional capital is allocating across these asset classes. Bitcoin's relative stability through the sell-off does not answer that question, but it is a data point worth watching.

All prices correct at time of publication. Bitcoin: ~$68,800. Gold: ~$4,411/oz. Silver: ~$68.71/oz.