21Shares Mid-Year Report Sees Bitcoin Recovering to $100,000 as Post-Halving Pattern Holds
21Shares published its mid-year crypto report on June 24, setting a $100K year-end base case for bitcoin and auditing its 2026 forecasts across ETPs, DeFi and tokenization.
Quick Insights
- 21Shares' mid-year audit sets a $100,000 base-case target for bitcoin by year-end, pointing to a current drawdown far milder than the 80%-plus corrections of prior cycles and BTC holding above its $54,000 aggregate cost basis throughout.
- Global crypto ETP assets under management stood at $140 billion as of May, down 15% year to date on price weakness rather than broad liquidation, with underlying BTC holdings still close to cycle highs despite roughly $3 billion in net US ETF outflows.
- The firm's original $300 billion DeFi TVL forecast is tracking well short at $140 billion, with security incidents cited as the primary constraint, while tokenized real-world assets on public chains hit $31 billion against a $500 billion target.
Zurich-based asset manager 21Shares published its mid-year crypto market report on Wednesday, revisiting the forecasts it set in December and laying out the conditions it sees underpinning a recovery in bitcoin toward $100,000 by the end of 2026. The report frames the current drawdown as historically familiar rather than structurally broken, noting the current cycle's decline remains well within the range of prior post-halving corrections and that bitcoin has so far avoided the outright capitulation that defined earlier bear markets.
"Following the peak at $126,000 in October 2025, bitcoin corrected sharply, tracking closely with historical post-halving rhythms," said Eliezer Ndinga, head of research at 21Shares. "The current drawdown is far milder than the 80%-plus corrections of previous cycles, and bitcoin has continuously stayed above its aggregate investor cost basis of $54,000. Fundamental metrics point to a base-case recovery toward $100,000 by year-end, rather than an unbacked breakout."
Bitcoin Has Not Traded Below Its $54,000 Aggregate Cost Basis - A Sign of Structural Maturity
The $54,000 level carries particular weight in 21Shares' analysis. That figure represents the realised price of bitcoin, the average cost at which all coins in circulation were last moved, and it has historically served as a floor during bear markets in more mature cycles. The fact that bitcoin has held above it throughout this downturn — even during the sharp selloff to below $60,000 earlier this month — is interpreted by the firm as evidence of "stickier capital flows" and a more institutionally anchored market than those of 2018 or 2022.
"From an asset allocation standpoint, what stands out at this mid-year mark is the profound resilience of institutional capital. ETP flows tell the story: underlying BTC allocations have remained close to cycle highs despite price volatility."
ETP Assets Down 15% on Price Not Flows as 1.25 Million BTC Stays in Structured Products
Global crypto ETP assets under management stood at roughly $140 billion as of May, down about 15% year to date. 21Shares attributes the decline to price movements rather than capital exits: total BTC holdings in ETP structures reached 1.25 million coins, around 8% below prior peaks, while US spot bitcoin ETFs saw roughly $3 billion in net outflows over the period. Despite that, underlying allocations have remained close to cycle highs, pointing to investors holding positions through drawdowns rather than exiting the asset class. For a live view of how ETP flows are tracking week by week, see our ETF tracker.
| Metric | 21Shares Dec 2025 Forecast | Mid-Year Reality |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin year-end target | $100,000+ (base case) | On track — BTC at $62,300 |
| Global crypto ETP AUM | $400B by year-end | $140B as of May (–15% YTD) |
| DeFi TVL | $300B | ~$140B (–53% vs forecast) |
| Prediction market volume | $100B full year | $57.5B through May — on pace |
| Tokenized RWA on public chains | $500B | $31B public / $350B permissioned |
Prediction Markets on Track for $100 Billion as DeFi Falls Well Short
Prediction markets are the standout performer in the mid-year scorecard. Trading volume reached $57.5 billion through the end of May, more than half of 21Shares' full-year $100 billion projection with seven months still to go. The firm notes that second-half catalysts including the FIFA World Cup and US midterm congressional elections could push the annual figure toward $200 billion if activity accelerates, validating the prediction market thesis ahead of schedule. For context on where Kalshi and Polymarket sit in this market, see our recent coverage of Kalshi's IPO talks.
DeFi is the sharpest miss. Total value locked sits at around $140 billion according to DeFiLlama, roughly unchanged from the start of the year and well below the $300 billion forecast. 21Shares cites security incidents as the primary drag on capital inflows, a constraint that has kept institutional money on the sidelines despite improving product quality and regulatory clarity in other parts of the ecosystem.
Ethereum Layer 2 networks have consolidated sharply. Base, Arbitrum and Optimism now capture 83% of all L2 DeFi TVL, confirming 21Shares' prediction that under-differentiated rollups would fail to compete. The firm describes the outcome as a structural shakeout matching the shift Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has discussed, with isolated scaling chains facing attrition or migrations to app-chain models.
Tokenized Assets Hit $31 Billion on Public Chains but $350 Billion on Permissioned Networks
The tokenization picture depends significantly on how you count. Public blockchain tokenized assets stand at $31 billion, anchored by $15 billion in tokenized US Treasuries — a long way from the $500 billion forecast. But assets mirrored on permissioned institutional networks like Canton, where they function as 24/7 collateral, reached approximately $350 billion. The distinction matters: public chain tokenization is what most retail and crypto-native participants see, but the larger institutional activity is happening on private infrastructure that doesn't show up in standard onchain data. For more on how tokenized financial infrastructure is developing, see our DTCC tokenisation explainer.
The full mid-year report is available for download on the 21Shares website.
