Quick Insights

  • Bitcoin's longer-term MACD histogram, using 50-day, 100-day and 9-day settings rather than the standard parameters, has crossed above zero for the first time since the bull market peak at $126,000, signalling a bullish shift in momentum.
  • BTC is trading around $64,000 on Thursday, up roughly 10% for the month, and the indicator has proven reliable through the current bear market: negative crossovers marked the start of steeper declines, while positive crossovers preceded meaningful rallies.
  • Three resistance levels now define whether the bounce extends into a trend reversal: the 50-day SMA at $65,434, the mid-June high at $67,292, and the 200-day MA at $71,147.

Bitcoin is up about 10% for July and has now received a bullish signal from a longer-term version of the MACD, one of the most widely used momentum indicators in markets. The moving average convergence divergence histogram, running on 50-day, 100-day and 9-day settings rather than the standard 12/26/9 default, has crossed above the zero line for the first time since bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in October 2025. BTC is trading just above $64,000 as of Thursday morning. The crossover is visible on bitcoin's daily chart on TradingView.

The standard MACD settings are sensitive to short-term noise and can generate frequent false signals in choppy conditions. Stretching the parameters to 50 and 100 days filters out that chatter and produces a smoother picture of whether momentum is genuinely shifting. That smoothing comes at a cost: the signal arrives later than the standard version. But it has also proved more reliable during the current cycle. Since October, negative crossovers using these settings have consistently preceded steeper declines, while positive crossovers came ahead of meaningful rallies, including the December-to-January recovery and the February-to-May bounce.

A Bullish Signal, Not a Confirmed Trend Reversal

A positive crossover in this indicator points to a notable bounce with further to run, not necessarily the start of a new bull market. Bitcoin remains below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which means the broader trend structure on the daily chart is still bearish. The MACD signal is an early read on shifting momentum, not a confirmation that the downtrend is over. Traders typically use it alongside other indicators and, critically, alongside price action at key levels. Those levels are now what matters.

The Three Levels That Define What Comes Next
  • $65,434: the 50-day simple moving average. This is the average price over the past 50 days and is used across both crypto and traditional markets as a gauge of near-term momentum. A clean break above it signals upside strength is building.
  • $67,292: the mid-June high. This is where bitcoin staged a brief recovery from the June 5 lows near $60,000, only for sellers to step in and push the price back down. Clearing this level shows buyers have overcome the previous area of significant supply.
  • $71,147: the 200-day moving average. The most important of the three. It also acted as a ceiling in early May when it capped the bounce off the February lows. Closing above it on meaningful volume would be the strongest confirmation yet that momentum has genuinely shifted.

Why $80,000 Matters Beyond Just Being a Round Number

Above those three levels, the $80,000 area carries a separate reason to watch. On Deribit, the notional open interest at the $80,000 strike currently exceeds $1.21 billion, the largest of any single strike on the exchange. As spot prices approach that level, traders holding options at that strike will increasingly hedge or adjust their positions through the spot and futures markets, which can amplify price swings in either direction. It is not a prediction, but a known source of potential volatility if the rally extends that far.

The context is that bitcoin has spent most of 2026 in a correction from that October peak, with the broader market weak and institutional ETF flows mixed. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 23, still deep in Extreme Fear, which means sentiment is recovering from capitulation but has not yet reached neutral ground. The spot bitcoin ETF market logged $84.9 million in outflows as recently as July 8 before returning to modest inflows, suggesting institutional conviction has been tentative at this price level.

The MACD signal is the most constructive technical development of the current bounce. Whether it converts into a sustained move depends entirely on how bitcoin handles the resistance cluster between $65,000 and $71,000 over the coming sessions. Until it clears those levels, the message from the indicator is cautiously bullish, not unambiguously so. For a broader look at how analyst forecasts for bitcoin have shifted this year, see our coverage of the 21Shares mid-year report, which sets a $100,000 year-end base case.

Disclaimer: Nakamoto Daily provides information for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing published here constitutes financial, investment, or trading advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.