Bitcoin's Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Just Turned Green for the First Time Since 2023

Bitcoin's bull-bear cycle indicator, one of the most widely tracked regime-shift signals in onchain analysis, turned green on 12 May for the first time since March 2023. The shift, flagged by CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno, has reignited debate over whether Bitcoin has structurally moved out of bear-market behaviour or whether the signal is repeating the false positive it produced in March 2022.

The Indicator Reads Three Onchain Metrics at Once

The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator is built on CryptoQuant's Profit and Loss Index, which aggregates three onchain metrics: the Market Value to Realised Value (MVRV) ratio, Net Unrealised Profit and Loss (NUPL), and a comparison of long-term and short-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratios. When the index moves above its 365-day moving average, the indicator flips green. When it drops below, it goes red.

The last confirmed green reading came in March 2023 and held continuously until August 2024, a window that covered the Bitcoin rally from roughly $20,000 to an all-time high above $73,000. Before that, the indicator turned green in 2019, also preceding a sustained bullish phase. Both are the kind of historical context that makes the latest reading notable.

March 2022 Is the Reason Nobody Is Calling It Confirmed

The historical track record is not unblemished. In March 2022, the same indicator briefly turned green before Bitcoin rejected the move and extended its downtrend through to the FTX collapse in November of that year. Moreno explicitly flagged that episode in his commentary, noting that the May 2026 reading clashes with exhaustion visible in several secondary metrics. The Fear & Greed Index is currently neutral rather than fearful, the macroeconomic backdrop is less supportive than in previous cycles, and Bitcoin is yet to clear the $82,000 resistance level that has rejected multiple rally attempts this month.

Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, described the indicator as a regime-shift tool rather than a predictive one. "Historically, it has been most useful for identifying when Bitcoin stops behaving like a bear-market asset," he said, adding that confirmation now depends on sustained demand, liquidity and price acceptance at higher levels.

$82,000 Resistance Is the Test

Bitcoin was trading just above $80,000 when the indicator flipped, roughly 35% above the February low of $60,000 but still below the level that would convert the signal into confirmed price action. Several other onchain readings support the bullish read. April spot Bitcoin ETF inflows totalled $2.44 billion, the strongest single-month institutional accumulation since October 2025. Glassnode's RHODL ratio sits at 4.5, the third-highest reading in Bitcoin's history, with the only comparable prior readings occurring at the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms, both of which were followed by sustained bull markets.

Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, did not reference CryptoQuant's indicator directly but argued separately that Bitcoin has already found its cycle bottom at $60,000. He identified $90,000 as the level at which any rally would turn explosive toward the prior all-time high of $126,000.

The disagreement is the more interesting feature of the current moment. Standard Chartered and Bernstein are both targeting $150,000 by year-end 2026. Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer has argued the October 2025 high may have already been the cycle top, with 2026 acting as a consolidation year. The Bull-Bear Indicator turning green is consistent with the first thesis. The fact that Bitcoin is not yet through $82,000 is consistent with the second. The next few weeks of price action are what tells you which one was right.