Bitwise CIO: Next Crypto Bull Run Will Be Slower and Less Volatile

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, expects the next crypto bull market to arrive later and more gradually than previous cycles. His reasoning centres on a structural shift in where Wall Street's attention and risk capital are currently pointing: toward artificial intelligence and real-world blockchain applications, and away from purely speculative digital assets.

"We've lost the attention of investors to other hot trends," Hougan said. "I think the coming bull market will be slower and less volatile than in the past." He pointed to AI as the dominant beneficiary of risk appetite right now, a dynamic visible this week in SpaceX's surge to a $2.5 trillion valuation and the broader enthusiasm for AI stocks drawing capital that might otherwise have flowed into crypto.

RIA Interest in Bitcoin Remains at Record Levels Despite the Drawdown

The nuance in Hougan's view is that slower does not mean absent. Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,000, roughly 50% below the record high it set in October, and the broader CoinDesk 20 Index has lost 34% since the start of the year. Despite that, Hougan says the registered investment advisers and institutional managers he speaks with remain deeply engaged with the asset class.

"Interest is as high as it's ever been," he said. "I think that's a very bullish long-term signal." Hougan, who has been one of bitcoin's most prominent institutional advocates, held to his long-term price target, saying he still expects bitcoin to surpass $1 million within the next 10 years, while acknowledging more uncertainty around the short-term picture. "I have less certainty around how, when or if it has bottomed. I think we have to wait to see how the four-year cycle plays out."

Stablecoins Hit $322 Billion as Investors Seek Real-World Blockchain Exposure

The assets drawing that tangible-seeking capital are stablecoins and tokenization. The combined market value of stablecoins recently hit a record $322 billion, a figure that now exceeds the foreign exchange reserves of 95 countries. Stablecoin transaction volume reached $33 trillion in 2025, up 72% year on year, and already rivals major card networks on an annualised basis. Citi's bull-case forecast puts the stablecoin market at $4 trillion by 2030, with a base case of $1.9 trillion, figures the bank revised upward last year after growth outpaced its earlier models.

Tokenization is following a similar trajectory. Blockchains associated with real-world asset tokenization, such as Stellar, have held up better than the broader market this year, with Stellar's XLM token up 8.9% year to date even as most of the market has sold off. For more on how tokenization works and why institutions are paying attention, see our explainer on DTCC tokenisation.

A Slower Cycle Is Still a Cycle

Hougan was careful to separate the idea of a delayed or moderated recovery from the idea that crypto's best days are behind it. The long-term case for bitcoin, in his view, rests on institutional adoption continuing to deepen, with RIAs and asset managers representing a buyer base that is building positions through drawdowns rather than retreating from them. That dynamic is unlike the retail-driven cycles that defined bitcoin's earlier price history, and it is precisely what makes this bear market feel different to participants who have watched previous ones.

The broader implication of his argument is that crypto's maturation as an asset class cuts both ways. A market with more institutional participation and more real-world use cases is less likely to produce the extreme, fast-moving rallies of 2017 or 2021. It is also, by the same logic, less likely to collapse in the same way. A slower bull run, in that reading, is the price of becoming a legitimate part of global financial infrastructure.