Polymarket Targets Japan Approval by 2030 in Global Push

Polymarket is preparing a multi-year campaign to win regulatory approval for prediction markets in Japan, targeting a green light by 2030, according to a Bloomberg report on Friday. The world's largest decentralised prediction market has already appointed a representative in the country and views Japan as a large untapped opportunity. The timeline is deliberately long, reflecting how much regulatory groundwork the effort will require in a jurisdiction with some of the strictest gambling laws in the world.

A Jupiter Executive Is Leading the Effort

The campaign is being led by Mike Eidlin, who currently serves as head of Japan at the Solana-based DeFi project Jupiter, according to Bloomberg's sources. His role reportedly includes coordinating with local lawyers, industry groups and officials to build the case for regulated prediction markets. Eidlin declined to comment on whether he is working with Polymarket.

The approach is notably methodical. Rather than launching first and dealing with regulators later, the strategy Polymarket used in its early years, the company is lobbying behind the scenes and working with Japanese institutions to construct a legal framework before going live. A Polymarket spokesperson told Bloomberg the platform has seen "meaningful organic interest from users in Japan," and the company already lists 188 live Japan-related markets that local users can view, even if active trading from within the country remains legally risky.

Japan's Gambling Laws Are the Central Obstacle

The core challenge is legal classification. Japan prohibits most forms of betting under its criminal code, with narrow state-sanctioned exceptions for horse racing, certain motor sports and lotteries. Casinos are only beginning to emerge under a tightly controlled integrated resort framework. Prediction markets sit in an awkward grey area, generally treated as online gambling rather than financial data products.

Analysts say any shift would likely require a custom-made legal category that differentiates prediction data from wagering. That is a legislative undertaking rather than a licensing one, which explains the 2030 timeline. One industry advocate framed the opportunity as Japan entering a phase where "prediction data could become a valuable new layer of financial and media infrastructure," a framing designed to position event contracts as information tools rather than gambling products.

The Timing Reflects Pressure at Home and Across Asia

The Japan push is part of a broader global expansion driven by mounting pressure on Polymarket's core markets. Legal scrutiny has hampered the platform's US activity, where it is seeking CFTC approval to reopen its main exchange to American traders after a 2022 settlement forced it offshore. The contrast with the rest of Asia is stark. Japan's invitation-style approach arrives the same week that India blocked Polymarket entirely, classifying it as illegal online money gaming.

The financial logic behind the long game is straightforward. Analysts at Citizens Financial Group forecast that prediction market revenues could grow fivefold to more than $10 billion by 2030, the same year Polymarket is targeting Japanese approval. With the platform valued between $12 billion and $15 billion in its most recent funding discussions, securing a regulated foothold in the world's third-largest economy would be a meaningful part of justifying that valuation. Whether Japanese regulators prove willing to build an entirely new legal category for on-chain event contracts is the question that the next four years will answer.